U.S. raw steel production rose to 1.877 million tons this week. That is up 0.3% from last week and up 6.8% year to date. Capacity utilization came in at 79.3%. The 50% tariff protection remains the primary support for domestic output. The economy continues to grow slowly but the tariff floor is holding firm.
Oil Falls on Middle East Deal Reports
WTI crude fell to $84.88/barrel this week. Reports of a potential Middle East deal are pushing prices lower. Analysts say a confirmed deal would push prices down further. That would be significant relief for consumers and the broader economy. U.S. crude production rose to 13.79 million barrels per day. Higher prices are pulling more output online. The rig count rose to 433. Drillers are responding to the higher price environment. Both trends point toward more domestic supply in the months ahead.
Steel Climbs to New Highs
Hot-rolled coil steel rose to $60.25/cwt ($1,205/ton) this week. The 50% steel tariff is giving domestic mills significant pricing power. That is excellent for the steel industry. But those higher prices flow directly into the cost of cars, appliances, and buildings. Everyone downstream from the steel mill is absorbing that increase. Scrap steel #1 HMS held steady at $365/gross ton. Supply and demand remain well balanced.
Copper Rises, Aluminum Falls
Copper climbed to $6.47/lb on optimism about a possible Middle East deal. A resolution would help the global economy recover. That is positive for copper demand. But concerns about slowing global growth are keeping a ceiling on enthusiasm. Aluminum fell to $1.61/lb ($3,543/MT) — the lowest level in a month. Two factors drove the decline. Slower global growth concerns are weighing on demand. And a potential Middle East deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and free up the 9% of global aluminum supply currently being blocked.
China’s Exports Hit a Record High
China’s May global exports surged 19.4% to a record high. Two forces are driving that extraordinary number. Global companies are building inventories to get ahead of expected price increases. And U.S. data centers are importing massive amounts of semiconductors and AI hardware from China. The AI buildout is showing up directly in global trade data. That is a powerful and accelerating trend.
Home Sales Tick Up But Remain Depressed
U.S. May existing home sales rose 3.2% to an annualized rate of 4.17 million. That is a positive move. But the broader housing market remains depressed. High mortgage rates are keeping many potential buyers on the sideline. Until interest rates come down meaningfully housing activity will stay constrained.
Wholesale and Consumer Prices Surge
May producer prices rose 6.5% year over year — the highest reading in about three and a half years. Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all jumped sharply. Services costs also rose. Wholesale inflation at 6.5% is working its way directly into consumer prices. The May consumer price index rose to 4.2% year over year — the highest reading in over three years. Gasoline jumped 40.5% year over year. Shelter was up 3.4% and food rose 3.1%. These are the essential spending categories that hit every American household every day. There is an important note of optimism here. When the Middle East conflict is resolved and energy prices normalize inflation should fall meaningfully.
Consumer Confidence Edges Up
The June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 48.9. That is up from the approximately 70-year low reached last month. The improvement was driven by modest easing in gasoline prices. Notably lower-income households showed the strongest improvement. They benefit the most from lower gas prices because energy represents a larger share of their total budget. The index is still below 50 — still in pessimistic territory. But the direction is encouraging.
Wall Street Rallies on Deal Hopes
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 335 points to close at 51,202. Reports of a possible Middle East deal drove the optimism. Inflation remains a major concern for markets. But the prospect of lower energy prices is powerful. Higher stock prices create a wealth effect. When people feel wealthier they spend more. That additional spending supports the broader economy. It is a real and meaningful economic force particularly among upper-income households.
This weekly report is produced by BENLEE Roll-off trailers and Roll-off Truck parts and roll-off trailer parts to support our customers, suppliers, and partners. We serve the recycling, scrap metal, and waste management industries. Questions? Call or email us anytime. Have a safe and profitable week.
— Greg Brown, President & CEO, BENLEE Roll-off Trailers
Reporting from Crete, Greece
