U.S. raw steel production rose to 1.872 million tons this week. That is up 0.1% from last week and up 6.8% from last year. Capacity utilization held at 81.1%. The 50% tariff protection remains the foundation of domestic output. The AI data center surge is adding meaningful new steel demand. The economy is growing slowly but the tariff floor is holding firm.
Oil Rises But Stays Off Recent Highs
WTI crude rose to $90.54/barrel this week. But it remains well below the recent highs. Chinese crude imports fell to their lowest level in ten years. Softer Chinese demand is a significant global signal. There has been no breakthrough in Middle East negotiations. Slowing global demand is adding downward pressure on prices. U.S. crude production slipped slightly to 13.707 million barrels per day — still off November’s record high. Higher-for-longer oil prices should bring more production online soon. The rig count rose to 431 — an almost one-year high. More rigs are responding to the higher price environment. That is a positive supply signal for the months ahead.
Steel Hits a Multi-Year High
Hot-rolled coil steel rose to $59.85/cwt ($1,197/ton) — a multi-year high. That is up 36.33% from one year ago. The 50% steel tariff is the primary driver. It is an extraordinary gain for domestic steel companies. Their profits and stock prices reflect that. But a 36% increase in steel prices in twelve months is a meaningful inflationary input across construction, manufacturing, defense, and AI infrastructure. Scrap steel #1 HMS held steady at $365/gross ton on well-balanced supply and demand.
Copper and Aluminum Pull Back
Copper fell to $6.28/lb but remains high. Higher inflation could force the Fed to raise interest rates. Higher rates slow the economy. A slower economy hurts copper demand. The Strait of Hormuz closure is also weighing on global growth and copper consumption. The long-term structural demand story from AI and clean energy remains intact. But near-term headwinds are real. Aluminum fell to $1.64/lb ($3,598/MT) but stays elevated. Guinea’s continued bauxite export controls and the prolonged Middle East supply disruption are keeping aluminum prices supported.
Consumer Confidence Still Pessimistic
The June Real Clear/TIPP economic optimism index fell to 43.5. Any reading below 50 signals pessimism. This index has been below 50 for ten consecutive months. People remain concerned about the economic outlook for the next six months. There was a slight improvement in how people view Federal Government policies. But the overall tone is cautious and worried. Ten months of sustained pessimism is not a short-term sentiment blip. It reflects deep and persistent concern about inflation, energy costs, and economic direction.
Factory Orders Surge — Partly for the Wrong Reason
April factory orders surged 4.8% from March. That sounds very strong. But context matters. Much of the gain reflects front-loading before the Middle East war disrupted supply chains. Transportation orders were also massively distorted by a 165.9% surge in nondefense aircraft orders. Strip out the aircraft and the picture is more modest. Businesses were rushing to get orders in before conditions worsened. That is not the same as organic demand growth.
Workers Losing Ground to Inflation
May average hourly earnings rose 3.4% year over year. That is below last month’s 3.6% pace. And it is below the current 3.8% inflation rate. Workers are earning more dollars but buying less with them. Real purchasing power is declining. That erosion of living standards is showing up directly in the consumer confidence data month after month.
Jobs Beat Forecasts
The May non-farm payrolls report showed the economy added 172,000 jobs — well above forecast. Leisure and hospitality, local government, healthcare, and manufacturing led the gains. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. The economy remains in good — not great — condition. Consumer spending by middle and upper-income earners is the primary thing holding it up. That is a narrower foundation than most economists would prefer.
Wall Street Sells Off Hard on Friday
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 166 points for the week to close at 50,867. But the Friday session was much worse. The Dow dropped a hard 695 points on that day alone driven by a sharp selloff in semiconductor stocks. The reason is straightforward. The strong jobs report and elevated inflation together raise the probability of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Higher rates slow the economy. A slower economy hurts technology and semiconductor companies most. Markets are repricing that risk in real time.
This weekly report is produced by BENLEE Roll-off Trailers to support our customers, suppliers, and partners. We serve the recycling, scrap metal, and waste management industries. Questions? Call or email us anytime. Have a safe and profitable week.
— Greg Brown, President & CEO, BENLEE Roll-off trailers and Roll-Off Trucks Roll-off trucks and roll-off trailer parts store Reporting from Athens, Greece
