U.S. raw steel production rose to 1.856 million tons this week. That is up 1.4% from last week and up 6.2% year to date. The 50% tariff protection continues to support domestic output. The economy is growing slowly but the tariff floor remains solid.
Oil Falls But Stays Elevated
WTI crude fell to $95.42/barrel this week. Almost no oil is currently flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Even when flows eventually restart oil prices will stay higher for many months. The disruption has fundamentally reset global energy markets. U.S. crude production slipped slightly to 13.573 million barrels per day. Oil companies are not investing in new production. Their focus is on returning cash to shareholders rather than expanding output. The rig count edged up slightly to 410 on strong per-well productivity. But producers remain cautious. High prices today do not guarantee high prices when new wells come online.
Scrap Steady, Steel Near Record Levels
Scrap steel #1 HMS composite held near $368.33/gross ton. Supply and demand remain well balanced. Hot-rolled coil steel slipped slightly to $56.50/cwt ($1,130/ton). That is still up 27% from one year ago. The 50% steel tariff is enabling dramatically higher prices. Steel company stock prices on Wall Street are at record levels. That is great for investors. But it adds inflationary pressure across every industry that uses steel.
Copper Surges on Structural Demand
Copper jumped to $6.28/lb this week. Three powerful forces are driving demand. AI infrastructure buildout requires enormous amounts of copper wiring. Electric vehicle adoption is accelerating globally. Clean energy projects are consuming copper at record rates. On top of that the Middle East conflict is disrupting shipments of acid used in copper mining. That is hurting supply at exactly the wrong time. The combination of surging demand and constrained supply is a powerful price driver.
Aluminum Remains Elevated
Aluminum fell slightly to $1.58/lb ($3,503/MT) but stays high. The continued blocking of 9% of global aluminum supply from the Middle East is the primary factor. Until the Strait of Hormuz reopens that supply constraint will not ease.
Consumer Sentiment: The Worst Since 1946
The May University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey fell to 48.2. That is the lowest reading since the survey began in 1946 — 80 years ago. People are worried about gas prices, tariffs, and declining real income. They feel their purchasing power is eroding. There is one piece of good news in the report. One-year inflation expectations eased slightly to 4.5% from 4.7% last month. That is a small but welcome improvement.
Jobs Beat Expectations
The April jobs report showed the economy added 115,000 jobs. That beat forecasts. Healthcare, transportation, and warehousing all grew. Federal government, information, and manufacturing jobs fell. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. But beneath that headline the picture is more complex. The employment rate declined to 59.1% — a four-plus year low. The number of unemployed rose by 134,000. Total employment fell by 226,000. The labor force itself shrank. A steady unemployment rate alongside a shrinking workforce is worth watching carefully.
Wages Growing Slowly
April average hourly earnings rose 3.6% year over year. That is the weakest pace since May 2021. Slow wage growth helps keep inflation in check. But it also means workers are losing ground in real terms against $4.45 gasoline and elevated food prices.
Factory Orders Beat Expectations
March factory orders rose 1.5% from February. That beat the 0.5% expectation by a wide margin. Computers and electronic products surged 3.6% — the strongest gain since 2001. AI-driven investment is clearly showing up in the manufacturing data. Durable goods rose 0.8% and non-durable goods climbed 2.1%. A solid across-the-board reading.
Wall Street Edges Higher — With a Warning Sign
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 110 points to close at 49,609. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high. The good jobs report higher earnings and soaring AI investment drove the gains. But one data point stands out as a warning. Whirlpool orders fell to recession-level industry lows. That is a significant signal. When consumers stop buying appliances it often reflects deeper caution about big-ticket spending. Worth watching closely in the weeks ahead.
This weekly report is produced by BENLEE Roll-off Trailers and Roll-Off Truck and Trailer Parts store, For Galbreath, Dragon, American and more to support our customers, suppliers, and partners. We serve the recycling, scrap metal, and waste management industries. Questions? Call or email us anytime. Have a safe and profitable week.
— Greg Brown, President & CEO, BENLEE Roll-off Trailers
