U.S. raw steel production rose to 1.858 million tons this week. That is up 1.5% from last week and up 5.8% year to date. Capacity utilization climbed to 80.5%. The 50% tariff protection remains the structural backbone of domestic output. Strong AI data center demand continues to add meaningful new steel consumption. The economy is growing slowly but the combination of tariff support and technology demand is keeping production elevated.
Oil Up 20% for the Month
WTI crude fell to $84.67/barrel this week but rose an extraordinary 20% for the month of July. Renewed and expanded fighting in the Middle East drove that dramatic monthly surge. The conflict is intensifying not resolving. Energy markets are pricing in a prolonged period of elevated supply risk. U.S. crude production fell slightly to 13,796 thousand barrels per day but remains near record levels. Good demand and strong prices are keeping output elevated. The rig count increased slightly to 451. Producers are responding to both the price signal and strong export demand.
Scrap Steady, Steel Holds Near Highs
Scrap steel #1 HMS composite held steady at $358.33/gross ton. That said there is downward price pressure building for August. Good scrap supply is the primary driver of that pressure. Watch August pricing closely. Hot-rolled coil steel fell slightly to $59.50/cwt ($1,190/ton). The 50% tariff protection is providing a firm floor. But slow demand growth is limiting further upside. Steel prices remain near multi-year highs by any historical measure.
Copper Near Record Highs
Copper rose to $6.51/lb — near its all-time record high. Two powerful forces are driving the move. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady — no increase. That is positive for economic activity and copper demand. And the global transition to clean energy combined with AI infrastructure demand continues to drive structural copper consumption at record levels. The long-term copper story is accelerating not slowing. Aluminum rose to $1.45/lb ($3,195/MT) on supply restrictions and tightening global inventories. The supply disruptions from earlier in the year have not been fully resolved and stockpiles remain below normal levels.
30-Year Treasury Hits Its Highest Since 2007
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note surged to 5.265% — the highest level since 2007. That is a nineteen-year high. Three forces drove the surge. First long-term inflation concerns are persistent and markets are pricing in higher inflation for longer. Second massive government deficits are forcing the Treasury to sell enormous amounts of bonds. More supply of bonds means lower prices and higher yields. Third the Federal Reserve Chairman made controversial comments about fighting inflation that rattled bond markets. This yield level has direct and immediate consequences. Mortgage rates track long-term Treasury yields closely. Business borrowing costs rise. Consumer credit gets more expensive. A 5.265% 30-year Treasury yield is a meaningful brake on economic activity across the board.
Trade Deficit Still Enormous
The June goods trade deficit improved slightly but remained a huge -$101.5 billion — coming off May’s fourteen-month high. Exports fell 1.8% while imports fell 2.6%. The tariff strategy is intended to bring manufacturing back to the United States. But the data tells a complicated story. Manufacturing employment in the U.S. has fallen by approximately 75,000 people over the past eighteen months. The trade deficit is still well above $100 billion. Tariffs alone have not yet produced the intended reshoring of manufacturing jobs and production.
PCE Inflation Improves
The June PCE inflation index improved to 3.7% year over year. The dramatic drop in oil and gasoline prices during June drove the improvement. That is good news. But the outlook for July is less encouraging. Energy prices are back up in July. A new round of tariffs has also taken effect. Both factors will likely push PCE higher in the next reading. The improvement in June may prove temporary.
GDP Misses Again
U.S. Q2 2026 GDP expanded at just 1.5% — below forecast. Most categories of investment declined. The one major exception was AI data centers which continued to surge. Export growth slowed while import growth increased. A widening trade gap is a direct drag on GDP. The economy is functioning but not accelerating. The gap between the Administration’s 3-4% growth targets and the actual 1.5% reading continues to widen.
Consumer Sentiment at Its Best Since Before the War
The July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised higher to 55.2 — the highest reading since before the war began. Consumers expressed genuine optimism about the five-year business outlook. That is an encouraging long-term signal. But overall sentiment is still 11% below where it was a year ago. Elevated prices remain the dominant concern for American households. People feel better. They do not yet feel good.
Wall Street Rises on AI and Tariff Profits
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 538 points to close at 52,485. AI-driven profits and tariff-related margin gains are boosting corporate earnings. Higher energy prices are producing windfall profits for oil companies. Those earnings are supporting stock prices even as the broader economy grows slowly. The market is being lifted by a relatively narrow set of beneficiaries — technology, energy, and steel — while many other sectors face real headwinds.
This week’s featured product is BENLEE’s roll-off trucks for sale — built to support our scrap metal and environmental customers. Call or email us for a quote.
This weekly report is produced by BENLEE Roll-off Trailers to support our customers, suppliers, and partners. We serve the recycling, scrap metal, and waste management industries. Questions? Call or email us anytime. Have a safe and profitable week.
— Greg Brown, President & CEO, BENLEE Roll-off Trailers
