U.S. raw steel production fell slightly to 1.842 million tons this week. That is down 0.5% from last week but still up 6.0% year to date. Capacity utilization held at 79.8%. The 50% tariff protection remains the structural foundation of domestic output. The slow-growth economy continues to be a modest headwind.
Oil Falls to Pre-War Levels
WTI crude fell to $68.76/barrel this week — the lowest price since before the war began. That is a significant milestone. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports have recovered to 90% of pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest crude oil exporter. Getting that volume back into global markets is a powerful supply force. U.S. crude production slipped slightly to 13.810 million barrels per day but remains very high. An important development worth noting — the U.S. may have picked up new long-term export customers during the war period. Those relationships could support elevated U.S. production for years to come.
Oil Rig Count
The rig count rose slightly to 445 — the highest level in over a year. Strong export demand and previously high prices are keeping drilling activity elevated.
Scrap Steady, Steel Eases
Scrap steel #1 HMS composite held steady at $365/gross ton. Global supply and demand remain well balanced. Hot-rolled coil steel fell to $58.45/cwt ($1,169/ton). That is down 2.25% for the month but still up 33% over the past year. The 50% tariff protection is providing a strong floor. But increased domestic steel production and the slow-growth economy are applying modest downward pressure on prices.
Copper Rises on Jobs Miss
Copper rose to $6.22/lb this week. The driver is somewhat counterintuitive. The weaker-than-expected jobs report actually helped copper. A soft jobs number reduces the likelihood of a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate increase. Lower rate hike risk is positive for economic activity and copper demand. Sometimes bad economic news is good market news.
Aluminum Near a 4-Month Low
Aluminum fell to $1.41/lb ($3,093/MT) — near a four-month low. Demand remains good. But supply has improved significantly. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz freed up approximately 9% of global aluminum supply that had been blocked for months. More supply meeting steady demand is a straightforward recipe for lower prices.
Manufacturing: China Up, U.S. Slowing
China’s June NBS manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3. Output growth accelerated and new orders increased. That marks three consecutive months of factory expansion in China. Employment fell — a note of caution within an otherwise positive report. The U.S. June ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 53.3. Output and new orders both grew but at a slower pace than recent months. Managers expressed concern about high inflation, tariffs, and the possibility of higher interest rates. The U.S. manufacturing expansion is continuing but losing some momentum.
Jobs Miss — But That Is Good News for Markets
The June non-farm payrolls report showed the economy added just 57,000 jobs — the lowest monthly gain in four months. Professional services, social assistance, and healthcare drove what growth there was. Mining, manufacturing, construction, and retail were essentially flat. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% — but for a complicated reason. Many people left the workforce entirely. Total employment declined. The number of people working two or more jobs increased. That is not a picture of a strengthening labor market. It is a picture of people working harder to keep up with inflation.
Average Hourly Earnings
Average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year over year. But inflation is running at 4.1%. Workers are earning more dollars and buying less with them. That gap between wage growth and inflation is a direct erosion of living standards for average American workers.
Wall Street Surges to a New Record
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,268 points to close at a new all-time record of 52,833. The soft jobs report drove the rally. A weaker jobs number reduces the probability of a near-term interest rate hike. Markets celebrated that signal enthusiastically. Notably smaller company stocks — which are more sensitive to domestic economic conditions — rose significantly. That broad-based participation is a positive economic signal. It suggests the rally has depth beyond just large-cap technology stocks.
This weekly report is produced by BENLEE Roll-off trucks and Roll-off trailers and Roll-off truck parts for sale to support our customers, suppliers, and partners. We serve the recycling, scrap metal, and waste management industries. Questions? Call or email us anytime. Have a safe and profitable week.
— Greg Brown, President & CEO, BENLEE Roll-off Trailers
greg.brown@benlee.com
734-722-8100
