U.S. raw steel production fell slightly to 1.87 million tons this week. That is down 1.5% from last week but still up 6.7% year to date. Capacity utilization held at 81%. The 50% tariff protection remains the backbone of domestic output. Strong AI data center demand is adding a powerful new demand driver to the steel market.
Oil Falls on Iran Deal Hopes — But a Warning Looms
WTI crude fell to $87.36/barrel this week. Reports of a preliminary U.S.-Iran deal sent prices lower. That is good news. But analysts are warning that even if a deal holds the recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will likely be slow. Supply will not normalize overnight. More importantly there is a serious warning worth noting. If no Iran deal is finalized within about a month oil inventories will bleed down to critical levels. That could trigger a dramatic price spike. Watch this situation very carefully in the weeks ahead.
U.S. crude production rose to 13.715 million barrels per day. Higher prices and record U.S. crude exports are keeping output elevated. The rig count jumped to 429. Producers are betting that oil prices will stay higher for longer due to tight global supplies. That allows U.S. producers to expand output without immediately crashing prices.
Scrap Steady, Steel Surges
Scrap steel #1 HMS composite held steady at $365/gross ton. Supply and demand remain well balanced. Hot-rolled coil steel jumped to $59.60/cwt ($1,190/ton). That is a significant move higher. The 50% steel tariff is giving domestic mills the pricing power to keep raising prices. Steel company profits are benefiting enormously. But those price increases are being felt across every industry that uses steel.
Copper and Aluminum Pull Back Slightly
Copper fell slightly to $6.39/lb but remains very high. AI data center expansion and the global clean energy transition continue to drive structural demand. The long-term copper story has not changed. Aluminum slipped slightly to $1.67/lb ($3,675/MT). Hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz drove the pullback. But a new supply risk emerged this week. Guinea announced export controls on bauxite — the raw material used to make aluminum. Guinea is one of the world’s largest bauxite producers. That is a meaningful new supply threat that could offset any Hormuz-related relief.
PCE Inflation at a 3-Year High
The April PCE inflation index rose 3.8% year over year — the highest reading in three years. PCE is a key inflation measure watched closely by the Federal Reserve. Gasoline, housing, utilities, and food all rose. Autos, financial services, and clothing fell. The breadth of the increase across essential spending categories is what makes this number particularly concerning for consumers.
Trade Deficit Narrows
The April goods trade deficit narrowed to $84.4 billion. Exports surged 4% while imports rose just 1.9%. Capital goods and consumer goods drove export growth. That is an encouraging sign for U.S. manufacturing competitiveness. A narrowing trade deficit is a positive contribution to GDP growth.
GDP Revised Lower
U.S. Q1 2026 GDP was revised down to 1.6% growth — below the earlier 2.0% estimate. Investments and consumer spending rose less than initially estimated. Business investment in equipment surged — a positive. But net trade was worse than expected. A 1.6% growth rate is modest. It reflects an economy that is functioning but not accelerating.
Consumer Spending Holding Up
April personal spending rose 0.5% from March. Gasoline and other energy surged. Food also rose. Housing and utilities increased. But here is the critical detail. When adjusted for inflation actual spending fell. People are spending more dollars but buying less. That is the definition of inflation eroding real purchasing power.
Durable Goods Jump — With a Caveat
April durable goods orders jumped 7.9% — the strongest monthly gain in a year. But the headline number is misleading. Non-defense aircraft drove almost all of the gain. The more important measure for the economy is non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft. That is the best proxy for business investment spending. It actually fell 1.1%. Businesses are not accelerating investment in equipment and machinery. That is a cautionary signal beneath a strong headline.
Wall Street Hits a New All-Time High
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183 points to close at 51,033 — a new record high. AI’s explosive growth, hopes of a Middle East deal, and solid earnings growth drove the rally. High stock prices are supporting spending among high-net-worth individuals. That wealth effect is a genuine economic positive even as lower and middle-income consumers feel squeezed by inflation.
This weekly report is produced by BENLEE Roll-off trailers and Roll-off truck parts and roll-off trailer parts store to support our customers, suppliers, and partners. We serve the recycling, scrap metal, and waste management industries. Questions? Call or email us anytime. Have a safe and profitable week.
— Greg Brown, President & CEO, BENLEE Roll-off Trailers
