U.S. raw steel production continued to soften this week, falling to 1.774 million tons — down 0.9% from last week, though still up 4.9% year to date. High energy costs are taking a measurable toll on economic activity, and that’s beginning to show up in production numbers.
Oil Remains the Dominant Story
WTI crude settled at $98.20/barrel — still dangerously elevated. Year to date, home heating oil has doubled. The reason is not a passing disruption: major oil and gas production infrastructure has been destroyed across the Middle East, and markets are not pricing in a near-term resolution to the conflict. U.S. crude production edged down slightly to 13.668 million barrels per day, and the active rig count ticked up to 414. Higher prices will eventually pull more production and rigs online — but that takes time, and the economy is absorbing the hit now.
Scrap & Steel Holding Firm
Scrap steel #1 HMS composite pricing held steady at $388.33/gross ton. Improving weather is helping domestic supply flow more freely, though global economic uncertainty is dampening export demand — keeping a ceiling on prices. Hot-rolled coil steel edged up to $53.20/cwt ($1,064/ton), supported by steady domestic demand and the ongoing 50% tariff shield protecting U.S. mills.
Non-Ferrous Under Pressure
Copper fell to $5.30/lb — still historically high, but the lowest level in three months. High energy prices are suppressing manufacturing demand globally, and the latest U.S. inflation data makes it harder for the Fed to lower rates and stimulate activity. Aluminum dropped to $1.45/lb ($3,195/MT). China — the world’s largest aluminum consumer — has seen demand decline year over year, and major production facilities in Bahrain and Qatar have gone offline.
The Fed Holds — and Says So Clearly
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75%. The Fed acknowledged the economy is still expanding but flagged concern over softening job growth. Importantly, they revised their 2026 GDP growth estimate up slightly to 2.4% (from 2.3%) and held 2027 at 2.3% — a far cry from the 4%+ projections coming from the Administration. The gap between Fed forecasts and White House rhetoric is worth watching.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.387% — the highest since July 2025 — as bond investors price in a prolonged period of war-driven inflation and elevated rates. Since the 30-year mortgage tracks closely to this yield, housing affordability is not improving anytime soon. January new home sales reflected that reality, falling to a 587,000 annualized rate on the combined weight of bad weather, high rates, and elevated home prices.
Inflation Pressures Building
February core producer prices (wholesale, excluding food and energy) rose 3.9% year over year — the sharpest increase in three years. Tariffs have been the primary driver, but there is reason for cautious optimism: many tariffs went into effect last April, meaning year-over-year inflation comparisons could begin to moderate in April 2026 as the base effect kicks in. January new orders for manufactured goods rose a modest 0.1% from December, led by non-durable goods including computers. Excluding transportation equipment, orders were up 0.4% — the third consecutive monthly increase, a quiet positive signal.
Wall Street Takes a Hard Hit
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,048 points to close at 45,577 — a four-month low. The S&P 500 hit a six-month low. The selloff was driven by escalating U.S.-Iran military confrontations and the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates, reinforcing investor concern that elevated inflation will keep monetary policy restrictive well into the year.
This weekly report is produced by BENLEE Roll-Off Trailers and BENLEE Roll-off parts store to support our customers, suppliers, and partners across the recycling, scrap metal, and waste management industries. Questions? Call or email us anytime. Have a safe and profitable week.
— Greg Brown, President & CEO, BENLEE Roll-off Trailers
greg.brown@benlee.com
734-722-8100
