U.S. raw steel production rose to 1.848 million tons this week. That is up 0.3% from last week and up 5.8% year to date. Capacity utilization hit 80%. The 50% tariff protection continues to support output. The economy is growing slowly but steadily.
Oil Rises as Hormuz Stays Closed
WTI crude rose to $94.40/barrel. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. That is keeping global supply tight. The U.S. is now exporting record amounts of crude oil and natural gas. That is a significant shift. Record exports could eventually push domestic producers to increase output. U.S. crude production slipped slightly to 13.585 million barrels per day. Producers remain cautious. The Administration has signaled it wants oil at $50/barrel. That target makes new investment risky. The rig count fell to 407. Strong per-well productivity is keeping output up despite fewer rigs. Record exports could change that calculation soon.
Scrap Slips, Steel Edges Higher
Scrap steel #1 HMS composite fell slightly to $368.33/gross ton. Good scrap flows into recycling companies are keeping supply healthy. Demand remains steady. Hot-rolled coil steel edged up to $55.25/cwt ($1,105/ton). A slight uptick in demand and the 50% tariff are supporting the move higher.
Non-Ferrous Metals Stay Strong
Copper dipped slightly to $6.03/lb but remains near its record high. Chinese smelters produced record amounts of copper in March. That is adding supply. But demand is also rising. High oil prices are accelerating electric vehicle adoption. More EVs mean more copper consumption. That long-term demand story remains very powerful. Aluminum rose to $1.63/lb ($3,603/MT) — near a four-year high. Major refineries in the UAE and Bahrain have been damaged. The closed Strait of Hormuz is also blocking 9% of global aluminum supply. Both factors are keeping prices elevated.
Manufacturing at a 4-Year High
The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54 this week. That is the best growth reading since May 2022. Production and new orders hit a four-year high. Longer delivery times also boosted the index. Those delays are largely caused by the closed Strait of Hormuz. It is a mixed signal — strong demand but supply chain stress.
Consumer Sentiment: The Worst Since 1948
The April University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey fell to 49.8. That is the weakest reading on record since 1948 — 78 years ago. The economy is functioning. But people are angry. They are frustrated that prices remain high. They are frustrated that prices have not come down. Many remember the Administration’s 2024 promise to cut energy prices in half within 12 months. That has not happened. That gap between promise and reality is showing up in the data.
Inflation Expectations Still Rising
The University of Michigan’s one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.7% — a seven-month high. The five-year outlook climbed to 3.5% — the highest in six months. The Federal Reserve watches these numbers closely. Rising long-term inflation expectations make rate cuts very difficult to justify.
Labor Market: Quiet and Stable
Weekly continuing jobless claims edged up slightly to 1.821 million but remain low. The economy is in a low-hire, low-fire pattern. Jobs are stable. But growth is not accelerating. That has been the story for about 18 months now.
Retail Sales Surprise to the Upside
March retail sales jumped 1.7% from February. That is a strong number. Higher gasoline prices drove much of the gain. But furniture and vehicle sales also rose. Higher tax rebates helped consumers offset the pain at the pump. Consumer spending is holding up better than confidence surveys suggest.
Wall Street Hits Record Highs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,530 points to close at 49,447. The broader S&P 500 hit a new all-time high. A Middle East ceasefire and strong tech stock gains drove the rally. Markets are responding powerfully to any positive geopolitical developments.
This weekly report is produced by BENLEE Roll-off Trailers and Roll off truck and roll off trailer parts
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