Steel Holds But Capacity Utilization Slips
U.S. weekly raw steel production fell to 1.808 million tons — down 0.6% from last week but up 5.4% year to date on capacity utilization of 78.3%. The 50% steel tariff protection and slow demand growth continue to define the production environment. Hot-rolled coil steel rose to $63.70/cwt ($1,274/ton) — up an extraordinary 57.67% from twelve months ago. Tariff protection and steel mills deliberately keeping supplies tight to protect margins are driving that historic year-over-year increase. Scrap steel #1 HMS held steady at $348.33/gross ton on the 50% tariff protection and a good balance of supply and demand.
Oil Approaches $100 as Middle East Fighting Escalates
WTI crude rose to $99.99/barrel — approaching the psychologically significant $100 threshold — as fighting in the Middle East continued to escalate. U.S. crude production rose to a new record high of 13,947 thousand barrels per day, driven by high prices and strong demand. The weekly rig count rose to 450, reflecting continued producer response to elevated prices and strong per-well productivity. Oil near $100 is a significant headwind for manufacturers, consumers, and the broader economy heading into the fall.
Copper and Aluminum Both Easing Slightly
Copper fell to $6.56/lb. but remains extraordinarily high. Concerns about potential new U.S. copper tariffs and ongoing supply disruptions from mines around the world are keeping prices near historic peaks even as they pull back slightly. Aluminum eased to $1.48/lb. ($3,257/MT) — still up 29.6% from a year ago. Approximately 9% of global aluminum supply remains restricted by Middle East disruptions, keeping the market tight despite some offsetting supply from China.
China’s Trade Surplus Hits $119 Billion
China’s August trade surplus widened to $119.1 billion as exports surged 25%. Shipments to the U.S. jumped 34.4%, pushing the U.S. trade deficit with China to $29 billion — the highest since January 2025. This is a significant data point. The tariff strategy was designed to reduce the trade imbalance with China and bring manufacturing back to the United States. The current numbers suggest that goal remains distant. China’s export machine is accelerating, not slowing.
Housing Near Multi-Year Lows as Mortgage Rates Top 7%
U.S. August existing home sales fell 2% to an annualized rate of 3.98 million — near a multi-year low. The 30-year mortgage rate has now crossed 7%, and high home prices show no sign of meaningful correction. The combination of elevated prices and elevated rates is keeping buyers sidelined and transactions near historic lows. With the Federal Reserve potentially raising rates further, near-term relief looks unlikely.
Consumer Sentiment Hits Second Lowest on Record
The September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey fell to 47.8 — the second lowest reading on record. Year-ahead expectations for both personal finances and business conditions deteriorated. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%. Americans are deeply concerned about where prices are headed and what the economy will look like in the coming year. This reading deserves serious attention — it reflects a level of consumer anxiety that, historically, has preceded broader economic slowdowns.
Inflation Steady at 3.4%; Core Inflation Encouraging
U.S. August CPI held steady at 3.4% year over year — still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Gasoline rose 27.4% and food rose 2.7%, both pressuring household budgets directly. The bright spot: core inflation, which excludes food and energy, fell to 2.4% — a genuinely encouraging signal that underlying price pressures are easing even as energy costs remain elevated.
Small Business Optimism Slips
The August NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.7 but remains at a fairly healthy level. Sales slowed with inflation and taxes cited as the two dominant concerns. Small businesses are cautious but not panicked — a reasonable description of the broader economic mood.
Markets Drop Sharply; Fed Rate Hike Expected
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 987 points to 52,573 — a significant single-week decline — as multi-year high interest rates and escalating Middle East fighting weighed heavily on sentiment. The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase this week is now high. A rate hike would add further pressure to mortgage rates, business borrowing costs, and consumer credit at a moment when all three are already at multi-year highs.
Product of the Week: BENLEE Multi-Axle Roll-off Trailer
This week’s featured product is the BENLEE Multi-Axle Roll-off Trailer — available up to 8 axles and 154,000 GVW, legal in Michigan to haul approximately 100,000 lbs. of payload. Purpose-built for Michigan operators who need maximum legal payload capacity in a proven, reliable roll-off platform. High uptime, low owning and operating costs, and BENLEE’s industry-leading build quality. Request a quote at benlee.com.
This report is brought to you by BENLEE — manufacturer of roll-off trailers, roll-off trucks, gondola trailers, lugger trucks, and roll-off and dump truck parts. Greg Brown reporting. As always, feel free to call or email with any questions. Wishing everyone a safe and profitable week.
Greg Brown
greg.brown
734-722-8100
